COVID-19 & Longevity
COVID-19 is a devastating infectious SARS virus that devastated health and systems of individuals and societies all over the world. Specific to Lifespan, this resulted in extremely high mortality rates in a very short period of time, causing significant changes to life expectancy worldwide. Now, 2.5 years later, research has shown that longevity in populations around the world is continuing to decrease as a result of the pandemic, and its long-term consequences.
In this article, I will be highlighting how COVID-19 has impacted various ethnicities and populations around the world, and why these populations have faced severe barriers to longevity.
A study by Andrasfay & Goldman (2021) modelled three scenarios of mortality; a medium mortality scenario highlighting average mortality due to COVID-19, a higher mortality scenario for places where mandates were not as strict, and a lower mortality scenario where there was a universal mask usage in the population. The estimated age was 78.61 years if COVID-19 hadn't happened. Using this model, there was an average of 1.13 years decrease in the medium mortality scenario, 1.22 years decrease in the higher mortality scenario, and 0.98 year decrease in low mortality scenario. In Black and Latino populations, there was a higher decline in mortality (3-4 times larger) than White populations, with a higher mortality increase for the Latino population. This is due to contributions from genetics, social and economic conditions, and the fact that there are more People of Colour (POC) living in areas with higher rates of COVID-19. COVID-19 also affected younger populations of POC compared to White populations. These disparities are immense, and regardless of what population one is from, there have been significant increases in mortality in all populations. However, these are only based on artificial models predicted in this study.
Actual decreases in life expectancy were greater. Life expectancy dropped from 79 to 77 years from 2019 to 2020, and dropped again to 76.1 years in 2021. To put this in perspective, an increase in mortality due to COVID-19 was 5x higher than the Seasonal Influenza outbreak in 2015. In 2020 and 2021, COVID-19 caused more than 50% of total deaths. This could be due to mutations of the COVID-19 virus, long Covid or significant social and health-care damages systematically.
In several studies that modelled life expectancies of males and females in around 31 countries, have showcased significant decreases in life expectancy in various populations. Females from 15 countries and males from 10 countries ended up with a lower life expectancy at birth in 2020 than in 2015. The only countries that seem to have bounced back to pre-COVID levels are Belgium, Sweden, France and Switzerland. (Scholey et al., 2022).
The diagram above shows how mortality rates have been affected for various ethnic groups.
USA specifically saw a significant decrease in life expectancies compared to other countries, with around 324.25 COVID deaths per 100,000, compared to Japan's 36.73 COVID deaths per 100,000 people. This could be due to a multitude of factors including consequences of a poorer healthcare system. For example, the USA has been lagging in making improvements to heart disease, chronic lung disease and cirrhosis, meaning that the life expectancy gap was already increasing between the USA and other countries before the pandemic.
Specifically in Canada, although facing a lower decline in life expectancy compared to the USA, has still been affected drastically. Quebec specifically faced a decrease of about 10 months compared to what it was previously. To put this in perspective, usually changes in life expectancy are less than 2 months per year.
These life expectancies were calculated using a technique called period life table. This includes applying death rates observed in actual populations in 2021 to each year of life for 100,000 hypothetical infants. The data shows how life expectancy rates would apply to different age groups at specific points in time. It is important to note however, that these data points about life expectancy are extrapolations, and may change in future years. These are not 100% accurate guarantees of life expectancy.
There are many factors that have contributed to decreases in longevity due to COVID-19. On a systematic level, longevity depends on the the resiliency of health-care systems in bouncing back from the burden of caring for COVID-19 patients. This also determines on what existing health trends were in different populations pre-pandemic. Genetic and socioeconomic factors based on ethnicity also play a role in specific populations, especially races that have previously faced poorer health due to systematic discrimination in the past.
Furthermore, there have been drastic increase in mental health disorders, which leads to a myriad of problems that all contribute to a decrease in longevity. This includes a 6x increase in depression and anxiety compared to 2019, making issues with mental health common place in our populations. These result in various stressors to the body and brain, which make individuals susceptible to several injuries and ailments that would further reduce longevity. There have also been an increase in injury and health risks due to an upsurge in drug usage as a coping mechanism for COVID-19. Overdoses, PTSD and addiction has also played a role in decreasing overall population longevity, with healthcare systems of various countries being stretched due to these additional impacts that have arisen due to the pandemic.
It is important to know that these statistics on mortality rates aren't the whole picture for COVID-19 and longevity. For example, as much of the population stayed at home, traffic incidents and accidents/injuries were reduced compared to pre-pandemic conditions. Further, due to mask mandates, the likelihood of contracting or suffering from other infectious diseases like Influenza, measles, hepatitis etc. were also reduced. This could all contribute to some degree to why COVID-19 related deaths were such a large percentage of overall deaths. It is thus difficult to isolate COVID-19 as being the sole factor of a decrease in longevity, as there is a cyclical effect of a multitude of factors that have resulted in this.
That being said, it is impossible to deny that COVID-19 did have significant consequences on the world's collective longevity. There are also large-scale damages on health-care system that could continue to decrease longevity in the future due to longer wait time, slower practises, and a decrease in medical staff. Due to burnout, there has been a high rate of health-care professionals quitting their jobs during the pandemic. There is a great shortage of health-care professionals as a result. Equipment has also been overused, and processes rushed to accommodate for the pandemic, meaning it might take a while before our health-care systems bounce back to the levels they were pre-pandemic, or better. Furthermore, will there be impacts of delayed cancer screening or insufficient control of chronic diseases?
With time, our healthcare systems will allow us to reach the level of life expectancy we held previously. In the mean time, it is up to us to be accountable for our health and lifestyle so that we can continue to preserve our livelihoods and longevity amidst these stressors placed on health-care systems and health-care professionals at large.
